Understand behavior. Develop changes to test.

A prediction becomes useful when you can see what is driving it.

The Human Behavior Model is for professionals who need to understand a consequential choice: what someone notices, what they expect, what they want to protect, and why a different choice may be difficult. It keeps the wider consequences visible while distinguishing them from the deciding person’s own experience.

Start with the decision, not a label

A recurring safety practice, a difficult conversation, a customer choice or a decision to help someone can involve competing pressures. The same circumstances need not mean the same thing to every person.

The analysis starts with the supplied situation, available choices and the precise behavior being examined. It does not infer that knowing a rule guarantees following it, or that a self-protective choice means indifference to everyone else.

From a question to a report

1. Describe the situation

   Supply the decision, the choices, the relevant circumstances and what would count as the behavior of interest. Distinguish facts from unknowns.

2. Examine the competing experiences

   Identify affected targets, then distinguish their consequences from what reaches the deciding person: perceived gains and losses, responses concerning others, and remaining direct experience.

3. Calculate and explain the population

   In the demonstration configuration, each of 100 supplied synthetic profiles receives its own comparison. The result is a count of those individual choices, not a vote based on an average person.

4. Use the explanation to frame changes

   When requested, compare a specified change in circumstances. A modeled difference can guide a practical test; it is not proof that an intervention will work in the field.

A worked example: the initial explanation

An endodontist knows an injection error occurred. Urgent care has begun. The decision is whether to disclose and document the error or give the supplied alternative account and omit it.

The minority choosing the alternative account has a greater mean burden from admission-related embarrassment. Their concern about professional goodwill can push the other way. The report shows this conflict rather than describing two fixed kinds of people.

A saved synthetic demonstration, not a measured rate among endodontists or a measure of predictive accuracy. These are the unchanged values in the full sample report.

What stays visible

The full report opens with the question, result and explanation. It then shows consequences for the patient and other targets, the actor’s separate responses, personal contribution comparisons, actual outcome groups, decision margins and influential assumptions.

The patient’s independent interests are not silently added to the clinician’s utility. A profile margin is not a confidence interval. An unresolved consequence remains a visible limitation rather than becoming zero.

A tool for understanding and practical change

Use the explanation to decide what needs investigation, what circumstances might be changed and what evidence should be collected next. The aim is not simply to produce a number. It is to give trained professionals an account they can question and use.

Learn the method in a three-day course

We are developing practical training for professionals using the Human Behavior Model. The planned focus is framing a decision, interpreting the population result, challenging assumptions and developing changes to test.

First course target: May 2027. Dates, delivery format and enrollment details will be announced when confirmed.